The Epidemiologic Transition (Part 1)

This session was facilitated by Menal Jham and delved into the various Epidemiologic Transitions we have witnessed over the ages. Omran (2005) breaks these general transitions we have witnessed into the following:

1.The Age of Pestilence and Famine
2.The Age of Receding Pandemics
3.The Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases
4.The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases
5. The Age of Obesity and Inactivity (present day)

"The epidemiologic transition in demography and medical geography can be defined as a phase of development witnessed by a sudden and stark increase in population growth rates brought about by medical innovation in disease or sickness therapy and treatment, followed by a re-leveling of population growth from subsequent declines in procreation rates". This theory was posited by Abdel R Omran in 1971.

Our group discussed that these transitions can not necessarily be applied to every country and nation in the world. Some "pockets" in the world are still in the Age of Pestilence and Famine.
Why is this? Does most of the population follow Omran's transistion Ages?

We also discussed if these transition ages be used as a prediction model for those "pockets" in the world which may be in another Age? We think no, as evidenced by the technology transition in Africa with cell phones. We did not witness a transition in many African countries to landlines before the dawn of cell phones. Landlines never were widely distributed before cell phones. Therefore, because we see this technology adjustment which seems to have skipped a transition step, we might see an Age adjustment follow suit. Omran's ages are not linear or predictive of future health and disease experiences. They also seem to be more readily applicable to the developed countries overall.

These transitions offer to us a way to identify patterns and trends in health and disease, in which certain parts of the world have witnessed. They are helpful in recognizing demographic patterns, economic and social determinants and the consequences of these combined.

I am also interested in what would the mirrored "social/psychological" Ages to those Omran has laid out for health? For example, if the US is now in the Age of Obesity and Inactivity, would the Social Age be titled as The Age of Complacency and Indulgence?

This population theory is unique in revealing to us the history of health and disease through a broad lens. Interesting read...anyone have thoughts on how this could be useful to us today?